For Canada’s federal election on Oct 21, I published AnyoneButTrudeau.ca and AnyoneButScheer.ca. The pamphlets are a follow-up to a similar effort from 2015.
The websites are backed by an open-source election forecasting model. The model correctly predicted the overall election outcome: a Liberal minority government. Of the 338 individual districts, the model got 85% of them right (and 15% of them wrong!). Is that good enough for you to trust the model in your district, next election? Only you can decide, armed with the numbers.
|Election||Website||Correct Projections||Accuracy (%)|
|2015||AnyoneButHarper.net||259 / 338||77%|
|288 / 338||85%|
Strategic voting is a hack for a broken voting system. The big scandal from the 2019 election is the reversal of the popular vote. This doesn’t feel fair to most voters. Next election, people will be hungry for new ideas, like Direct Democracy.